After two years of fighting inflation amid fears of recession, markets and policy makers appear unified in their sanguine outlook. While interest rate increases designed to slow economies may well be nearing an end, markets are never without risk. The final quarter of 2023 marked a change in expectations, and economic inflection points are a time to think deeply about what’s dr ...

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After three quarters of improving economic outlook amid increasing expectations for a painless decline in global inflation, markets and pundits alike have become less optimistic about a soft landing as they reacted to frustration from the Fed. In an unfavorable scenario for stock and bond investors in a quarter with little fundamental change, economic worries increased while in ...

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In a quarter filled with talk of potential Treasury default and the second largest bank failure in U.S. history, markets chose to look forward. This was a quarter of AI captivating markets. The S&P entered bull market territory, catching up to international markets which had recovered earlier from the lows of last October. But for those of us who knew him, the events of the ...

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Despite continued geopolitical events and a potential banking crisis, markets remained focused on the economy and central banks’ attempts to control inflation. The quarter started with relative optimism after the lowered expectations of 2022 and nearly all asset classes fared well. Despite the failures of some midsized banks, and the buyout of Credit Suisse, markets have largel ...

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2022 was a year of disappointment and negative surprises as economies faced the consequences of geopolitical turmoil and central banks fighting inflation. The result was a historic decline in global investment wealth. Statistically, 2023 is likely to be better. Market Performance A historic 2022 closed in a positive quarter with markets rising before falling in December. During ...

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Central banks are playing a high-stakes game with the economy. Thus far, the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates have not had their full intended effect. Meanwhile, the leading problems of war, inflation, and the pandemic seem little closer to resolution today than last quarter.  With more aggressive rate hikes on the horizon as well as little indication ...

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Markets are pricing in a potential recession as central banks slow economies to fight inflation. While it is rare to have a recession without investors experiencing some pain, this self-imposed economic slow-down is highly anticipated and may be briefer than most; despite the bear market indicating a potential recession, current employment remains high and supply chains are imp ...

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An unusually strong tug of war between economic forces is playing out in global markets, with a booming economy and low unemployment offset by the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expanded inflation. Expectations over the timing and magnitude of Fed interest rate increases rapidly evolved as clarity began to emerge around central bank responses to inflation. Marke ...

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The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic. This marked the acceleration of many market and economic trends for the year including the dominance of U.S. large-cap stocks, the rebound in sectors such as real estate inflationary pressures, a return to full employment, and a broad mo ...

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After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors. Markets vacillated between these concerns and cautious optimism for economic growth emerging from the pandemic. As a result, many markets ended the q ...

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