Central banks are playing a high-stakes game with the economy. Thus far, the Fed’s efforts to fight inflation by raising interest rates have not had their full intended effect. Meanwhile, the leading problems of war, inflation, and the pandemic seem little closer to resolution today than last quarter.  With more aggressive rate hikes on the horizon as well as little indication ...

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Markets are pricing in a potential recession as central banks slow economies to fight inflation. While it is rare to have a recession without investors experiencing some pain, this self-imposed economic slow-down is highly anticipated and may be briefer than most; despite the bear market indicating a potential recession, current employment remains high and supply chains are imp ...

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An unusually strong tug of war between economic forces is playing out in global markets, with a booming economy and low unemployment offset by the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and expanded inflation. Expectations over the timing and magnitude of Fed interest rate increases rapidly evolved as clarity began to emerge around central bank responses to inflation. Marke ...

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The year ended on a highly upbeat tone for investors as equities rose to new heights against a backdrop of inflation and a prolonged pandemic. This marked the acceleration of many market and economic trends for the year including the dominance of U.S. large-cap stocks, the rebound in sectors such as real estate inflationary pressures, a return to full employment, and a broad mo ...

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After beginning the quarter on a relatively upbeat note, familiar themes returned as fears of inflation, ambiguity over the end of the pandemic, and uncertainty about the future of Chinese capitalism raised concerns for investors. Markets vacillated between these concerns and cautious optimism for economic growth emerging from the pandemic. As a result, many markets ended the q ...

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By John McCrary, and

As the global economy continued to reopen and the recovery gained speed, markets reached new highs. Inflation rose significantly, but prospects dimmed for a sizable infrastructure bill. Thus, some major trends from the first quarter reversed: bond yields fell and value stocks underperformed as the Fed tried to rein in inflation expectations. Despite some mixed signals from the ...

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By John McCrary, , and

Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways. The speed of the U.S. economic recovery indicates that the U.S. economy is far more resilient than previously acknowledged. The rapid development of a coronavirus vaccine showcased the astonishing capabilities of modern biotechnology firms financed by governments and capital markets. In addition, this year’s innovations in fiscal and monetary policy might become a new standard. Much hinges on whether the Biden administration can implement its agenda of accommodative fiscal policy and strict climate change regulations...

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By John McCrary

Despite extensive economic and human costs, 2020 may be a turning point in multiple ways. The speed of the U.S. economic recovery indicates that the U.S. economy is far more resilient than previously acknowledged. The rapid development of a coronavirus vaccine showcased the astonishing capabilities of modern biotechnology firms financed by governments and capital markets. In addition, this year’s innovations in fiscal and monetary policy might become a new standard. Much hinges on whether the Biden administration can implement its agenda of accommodative fiscal policy and strict climate change regulations...

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By John McCrary

Propelled by large cap growth stocks, the S&P 500 reached an all-time high on September 2.  New economic data exceeded expectations, and COVID-19 cases were falling in the U.S. Yet stocks soon declined, driven by a correction in large cap tech stocks.  Equities still closed the quarter in positive territory, with the S&P returning 9% this quarter and 6% year-to-date.  H ...

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By John McCrary

Following the March downturn, the quarter featured an exceptionally fast rebound in stocks. The S&P 500 posted returns of 21%, and the NASDAQ climbed 31% this quarter. Stock prices closed the quarter close to January levels, with the S&P 500 down 3% and the NASDAQ up 13% year-to-date. The rebound occurred while the U.S. economy operated at limited capacity with many sec ...

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